The maturity of Bitcoin options of US$ 470 million this Friday seems pessimistic at first sight, but the bets went terribly wrong.
On November 4th, the number of open contracts on Bitcoin options reached a new historical record. When this happened, an even more curious fact came up. On November 6, a total of US$ 470 million in open contracts should expire. This is quite unusual, as monthly and quarterly closings usually concentrate liquidity.
At the moment, Deribit holds 75% of the open interest, followed by Bit.com with 13%. Interestingly, in both exchanges, the put options represent 65% of the notional outstanding. This proportion is exactly the opposite of the aggregate Crypto Cash review options market (BTC) for the remaining dates, which favors call options by a wide margin.
BTC Deribit call options due on November 6.
In a more micro analysis, 6,050 BTC call options range from $13,500 to $14,750. Bit.com adds 1,130 BTC and OKEx adds another 430 BTC. Therefore, there are immediate open contracts of $114 million supporting the current levels.
Deribit BTC put options expire November 6.
Meanwhile, put options of $13,250 to $14,750 total 4,700 BTC in Deribit, followed by 1,320 BTC in Bit.com and OKEx with 480 BTC. Therefore, the immediate pressure on the seller’s side comes to $98 million in open-ended put options contracts.
In reality, most put options are depreciated, with no market value. With less than 16 hours to maturity, the right to sell BTC for US$ 12,500 or less is not worth it. This excludes 60% of the US$ 300 million put options outstanding.
Therefore, when analyzing only the option blows closest to market levels, there is a slight imbalance of US$ 16 million favoring the purchase side. It seems that there have been some major bear trades meticulously prepared for the US elections, negatively impacting the price.
Fortunately for buyers, the opposite movement seems to be occurring, causing short-term bearout options to be wasted.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.